CFA Results

CFA rank rules: implied earn-move vs last-5 avg abs · skip long premium ~1.7x+ rich · prefer 13F accumulate/distribute with a clear narrative · postmortem in §09 after the print.

01 — Macro Regime

Macroeconomic Environment

Fed Stance

Rate Environment

Dollar Trend

Credit Spreads

Macro Bias Score

Macro Notes

02 — Sector Context

Sector Context

Sector Sector Momentum Peer Sentiment Rotation Signal Sector Notes

03 — Sentiment & Positioning

Sentiment & Positioning

Options Skew

Put/Call Ratio

Short Interest %

Inst. Flow

Retail Sentiment Sentiment Score

04 — Narrative Framework

Narrative Framework

Primary Catalyst

Consensus View

Bull Narrative

Bear Narrative

Differentiated View — Your Edge

Narrative Conviction

05 — Volatility Profile

Volatility Profile

IV Rank %

IV Percentile %

Expected Move $

Earn Implied %

Last-5 Avg Abs %

Imp / Realized

Hist. Vol 30d %

IV vs Realized

Rank Note Vol Regime Vol Score

Vol Notes

06 — Drift Analysis

Pre-Earnings Drift

Drift Direction

Drift Magnitude %

Days to Earnings

Historical Pattern Drift Confidence Drift Score

07 — Whisper & Expectations

Whisper Numbers & Expectations

Official EPS Est.

Whisper EPS

Revenue Est ($B)

Whisper Rev ($B)

Guidance Exp.

Surprise History (positive = EPS beat)

Q-1—

Q-2—

Q-3—

Q-4—

Beat Rate

—

Key Metrics to Watch

08 — Scenario Mapping

Scenario Framework

Probs ≠ 100%

Expected Value

—

BULL CASE

Trigger Price Target $ Probability % Expected Return % Time Horizon Trade Structure

BASE CASE

Trigger Price Target $ Probability % Expected Return % Time Horizon Trade Structure

BEAR CASE

Trigger Price Target $ Probability % Expected Return % Time Horizon Trade Structure

09 — CFA Results

Postmortem & Trade Result

Status

Direction

Structure

Actual Move %

P&L / R

Thesis Hit / Miss

Manage Notes

Lesson

Stock Comparison Matrix

Desk matrix — all metrics across universe